How we think - and how we can do better

​Aren’t we already good enough at thinking right? Shouldn’t we just get stuff done?

​From previous weeks you learnt that thinking a bit before can make a 100x difference.

​But can we trust numbers like "100x"? How do we know we're not just lying to ourselves by messing with math? How do we often get things wrong? All this and more this session!

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​Reading List: (1h)

1. ​On Caring — EA Forum (scope neglect, 12’)

2. ​The Scout Mindset (Video, 12’)

3. ​Marginal Impact: Making the Most of Additional Effort (12’)

4. ​Expected value: how can we make a difference when we're uncertain what’s true? - 80,000 Hours 

5. ​Counterfactuals and how they change our view of what does good - 80,000 Hours (5’)

6. ​Moral uncertainty: how to act when you’re uncertain about what’s good - 80,000 Hours (3’)

7. ​EA is about maximization, and maximization is perilous (8’, piggybacks off of moral uncertainty)