Can Japan Stand Up to America?
Our guide for this pivotal moment in Japanese business and political history will be the fabulous Vivian Tokai, who (by popular consensus) gave the best politics lecture/discussion in living memory last year.
Delphi is all about blending human connections and information — a combination which one Country Manager memorably described as a good definition of “wisdom.”
Our upcoming Delphi salon will reflect that spirit especially well, as we examine the Japan–US relationship, which in many ways hinges on the “animal heat” of the Trump–Ishiba dynamic.
Like many Japanese politicians, Ishiba does not ooze charisma in the Western sense. But is he even likeable?
This question is crucial for Japan, because President Trump is intent on punishing those whom he believes exploit US wealth for their own ends.
We know Trump has strong personal likes and dislikes, and if he ends up disliking Ishiba simply because Ishiba lacks charm, persuasiveness, warmth, English skills, and a well-rounded education, it could deal a blow to the current arrangement — which benefits Japan enormously.
Whether that arrangement harms the US is, of course, the nub of the matter.
Either way, Japan would surely like to preserve the status quo — and Ishiba has to step up.
Note: The above was written before the tariffs were announced. It would seem Ishiba has already failed, with potentially grave consequences. It feels like a dangerous time — and the threat is not from China or North Korea.
A senior Japanese Delphi member was scathing about Ishiba. His remarks are reproduced here because they illustrate a) the gap between former PM Abe's speed and charm and Ishiba's stumbling, and b) the weakness of Japan's political system and its elites:
"Trump will have forgotten Ishiba ten minutes after meeting him (when Ishiba visited the US for their first meeting)... Ishiba is long-winded, ultra-polite, and loses himself (and his audience) in circular arguments. Ishiba failed to get anything out of Trump, yet he's still not retaliating. The huge investment via SoftBank that he promised Trump is still going ahead.
"The only reason Ishiba — a complete mediocrity — is in power is that no one else wanted the job after the funding scandal under former PM Kishida. Everyone knows the LDP is unpopular right now, and the political life of its leader is very limited. So the biggest personalities in politics foisted the job onto the useless Ishiba... and it’s backfiring horribly, because this is exactly when we need the best leader.
"The US and China are pushing us around — it’s intolerable. I can see a massive backlash in favour of Takaichi (the hard-right Japanese nationalist). Usually, the Japanese have no truck with those kinds of people (that’s why she lost to Ishiba), but she’s getting more attention — because at least she has a backbone."
At a time when not just Ishiba but the entire Japanese establishment elite is under scrutiny, we certainly need the sharpest minds at the table.