In-Depth with Jacob Spertus

​Sequestering soil organic carbon (SOC) by changing how lands are managed could remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to mitigate climate change. This possibility is driving research and investment into policies designed to change management and sequester SOC. The impact of management interventions on SOC levels is moderated by features of a given soil that collectively determine its sequestration potential. In turn, the effectiveness of a policy implemented across a set of fields is a function of the sequestration potential of those fields under each possible management. Roughly speaking, interventions should be preferentially applied to fields with the highest sequestration potential and the lowest cost of application. I will present a design-based statistical framework for estimating causal effects and policy benefits. I will review the myriad and nested sources of uncertainty that arise in this context, and how to control them. Primarily, I will show how to estimate an optimal policy under budget constraints and varying implementation costs using covariates. Time permitting, I will also discuss the SOC saturation hypothesis in relation to sequestration potential. I will conclude by discussing ramifications for sequestration policies, crediting schemes, and scientific research.