Integrating Scenarios into Strategy
The concept of scenario—like strategy—is used inconsistently across theory and practice. Scenario approaches typically fall into three camps: futurist studies, substitutes for a genuine strategy process, or testing of strategy as an afterthought. Each of these poses problems.
In our next roundtable, Peter Compo, author of The Emergent Approach to Strategy, will introduce practical methods for integrating scenarios into the strategy discovery process, without falling into these traps.
While futurist studies may be needed in cases, Compo argues that the most critical purposes of scenario use are to:
Disrupt the belief in a single, “known” future,
Reinforce that a strategy is “at the mercy” of all futures, and
Encourage practical contingency thinking.
The session will include straightforward ways to weave scenarios into a Strategy Alternative Matrix (SAM), along with warnings about common missteps, including:
The need to escape the tyranny of the “most-likely” case
The overuse of 2x2 matrices
The fallacy that “each scenario gets its own strategy”
Confusing forecasts, strategies, and assessments
Using arbitrary uber-long-range time-horizons for scenarios instead of basing horizon on the organization’s aspiration
Ignoring upside potential and focusing only on downside risks
Join us for this session and discover how scenario design can become a practical part of adaptive strategy.
Meet the Speaker
Peter Compo is a scientist, writer, composer, and business strategist. He is the author of The Emergent Approach to Strategy, which is considered one of the most important foundational books in the era of modern business strategy. Peter joined Dupont as a PhD chemical engineer, holding a wide range of leadership positions there over 25 years. He now explores the deeper foundations of creativity and innovation across human endeavor, from biology to business to music.